Thursday, April 1, 2010

Judgment day?

Ok, I'm going to make my crystal ball blog prediction: I believe Chapo will be caught in the next three days.

A few months back, a former DEA chief of operations told me (and a few other reporters, too) that he thought Chapo had about 90 days left. That would put the capture/killing at mid-April.

My sense (and this is just a gut feeling; it is not based on any reliable intelligence) is that the troubles in Tamaulipas right now might be a perfect smokescreen for the army or special forces to go in and get Chapo in Sinaloa. With all the attention on the other side of the country, Chapo and co. must be feeling nice and secure again.

April 4 is Chapo's birthday. He likes to throw parties, when he has the opportunity. He's also been known to switch dates of events (his last wedding, for instance) in order to throw the authorities off balance. So I'm predicting April 2, tomorrow. I'm predicting he'll be caught in Jesus Maria, the town where he once lived and where his son Edgar is buried.

Of course, I'm just guessing here. But as I've said before, it would be a coup for Calderon, and allow him to leave the drug war behind him with at least some dignity intact.

1 comment:

  1. wow, bold prediction. Too bad you can't lay any money on that, the odds must be suuuuuuper long.