Former DEA chief of operations Michael Braun firmly believes that Chapo's days are numbered. His 90-day prediction is not based on intelligence, but more on his analysis of the recent fall of various cartel leaders like Arturo Beltran Leyva, which proves to him that the Mexican authorities are doing a bang-up job and sparing no one. The Calderon administration is being "relentless," Braun says, and he believes that Chapo will soon be "in handcuffs or on a slab."
What we should watch for, in my opinion: more arrests of narcos linked to Ignacio Nacho Coronel (a few relatives got nabbed on Wednesday); more arrests linked to Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada (the Zambada clan has basically fallen, El Mayo is the last one standing); and obviously any arrests closely linked to Chapo himself.
I'm not going to hold Braun to his 90-day prediction because he's not basing that on concrete intel, but if his crystal ball is correct, let's hold our breath for a mid-April surprise.